Looking Ahead With Hope and Trepidation

From thestreet.com 11/3/2008

One day left until we find out who will occupy the White House for the next four years. Whoever it is, he will inherit a mess. Campaign promises will have to addressed before they're discarded. The rescue/bailout has to be implemented, and more important, paid for. And there will be pressure from all around to re-regulate the markets. Most of this will likely take many quarters to sort out, so I anticipate volatility in the markets early on. My hunch is that government will grow in size and grow in scrutiny as it prints itself trillions of dollars to work with. Over time, analysts will simply take it for granted that big government is here to stay.
The volatility in the markets will eventually give way to steadying yet directionless markets. September is known as the weakest month for the S&P, and it did not disappoint, with futures opening the month at 1282 and closing at 1169, a loss of 8%. .....
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Be a Trader, Not a Gambler

From thestreet.com 7/23/08

I remember a trade I almost made six years ago like it was yesterday. It was winter 2002 and the weather was absolutely freezing. Gas was ripping higher and I was bullish -- I was long 100 April $7 calls in natural gas.
I remember the day the calls went a full dollar in the money. I was up a cool $1 million on the trade. I will never forget the next conversation I had. I went to sell the calls and the guy holding the bid backed off a touch. He backed off by a small amount, but enough to tick me off.
The trade was still massively profitable, but I let this guy get into my head. I thought: "Fine ... but you will be sorry, this market is going higher." It didn't. Instead of hitting the next best bid to get out, I got stubborn.
I was no longer trading, I began to hope. I was trying so hard to be right, to show this guy (whom I would probably never see again) that I was right. I left the position on............
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Iran Talks Can Help

From thestreet.com 7/21/08

Well, did you think Iran was just going to shut down its nuclear program?
I have been closely watching the Undersecretary of State William Burns and the results of his historic meeting yesterday in Geneva with the Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator.
Don't get me wrong. It is definitely a step in the right direction to send a U.S. diplomat to the bargaining table with Iran. The purpose was to negotiate with the Iranians regarding their uranium enrichment program.
I think the meeting was largely symbolic, however. The U.S. sent Burns, Condoleeza Rice's undersecretary, to the meeting for a single day. And he was sent with demands that Iran has already rejected from much more influential diplomats.
However, I am very happy we sent him. I think the message Burns carried to Geneva was actually a message being sent to a place near Iran, but not on the Persian Gulf. I believe it was a message sent to Tehran, but meant for Jerusalem...........
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It's Not So Bad Out There

From thestreet.com 7/16/08

To my mind, things not as bad as everyone seems to think.
Alcoa(AA - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and General Electric(GE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) beat analysts' estimates. And Intel(INTC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), Altera(ALTR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and Wells Fargo(WFC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) have posted solid quarterly performances. Plus, crude oil dropped $6.49 on Tuesday and is down more than $1 on Wednesday.
The consumer price index was up 1.1%, an improvement for the first time in more than three months.
Citigroup(C - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) reports results on Friday. The stock has been crushed, closing at $14.50 after hitting $56 a little more than a year ago. Analysts around the Street are certainly going to shoot low; after all, any analyst who has been around for a while is surely not going to go out on a limb with overly optimistic Citi numbers. ...........
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Buy the Financial Sector ETF

Buy the Financial Sector ETF from thestreet.com

I just don't buy it. I have been listening to Mr. Jean-Claude Trichet, El Presidente of the European Central Bank (ECB) speak for a long time. I fully understand that the ECB has a single mandate, which is to fend off inflation.
The difference between the ECB and the Federal Reserve Bank here in the U.S. is that the Fed wears many hats. It is in charge of that same fight with the evil inflation, but it is also charged with supplying the proper stimulus to insure economic growth.
Generally, with growth comes employment. So, as we here in the U.S. have had the benefit of aggressive stimulus in the form of easier and easier monetary policy, the ECB has had to stand pat.
Because we were in an easing cycle, one of the collateral risks was heating up....inflation in the form of higher energy and food prices. We realized that the risks were weighed and that falling into a recession would be more harmful than falling into a $4 gallon of gasoline.. So, the Fed cut... and cut,... and cut again.
Another one of the sidebars to monetary easing is that the currency running the economy under easing pressure would find value elsewhere. That's where the rub was.
As we lowered rates and the rest of the developed (and not so developed) world held steady, traders turned to those foreign currencies for returns. Hence, the dollar slid and the Euro, Loonie, Aussie, Yen, Real and most other currencies gained..........
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