From thestreet.com 1/05/09
One of the things that keeps me sane in the really hectic, crazy world I have carved out for myself is frequent treks to the beach. Once there a daily run is absolute happiness for me. Ending a tough 2008 (there seems to be no better way to describe the year than just plain "tough") and launching into a hopeful 2009 I was able to get out for seven runs in six days. Believe me, I am grateful for the ability to do this all thanks to a wonderful career trading. If you don't know my past, you may be thinking that I am being pretentious by talking about my time on the beach. But it wasn't always this way for me. went from a runner in the soybean pit during Chicago summers to the energy pits of New York. Early on, I recall thinking how cool it would be to be a trader. Those dreams were squashed when I realized that it would be a near impossibility given the fact that it required a $50,000 balance to trade. With no money in the bank (or family), and my $150 salary a week, it would be like climbing Mount Everest to ever get that trading badge.
Back to the run. On one outing, my 10-year old son decided to run with me. On the way, we passed a cemetery and this started an interesting conversation between us. "Dad, why do people die?" he asked, along with many other inquisitive questions. He then asked me why God doesn't just drop money down from heaven so that everyone could buy anything they wanted? "And what about starving children?" It was getting heavy, but I did my best to explain. ....
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Monday, January 5, 2009
Commodity Opportunities Abound
Monday, November 10, 2008
Obamanomically Correct
From thestreet.com 11/10/08
am very thankful for this column. It has provided me a platform to sound off on a wide range of topics: the dollar, OPEC, drilling, interest rates, real estate, the bailout package, gold, volatility, stocks, bonds, and of course, politics. Now that the election is over, I can focus in on the economy and the markets again. I will be forever changed in that I have found a new passion for the political process. I have been given a great opportunity to host a daily show on Foxnews.com called "The Strategy Room" and we throw around topics that affect everyone.
I mention "The Strategy Room" because it is intended to be a political forum. During my months as host, I have realized that the economy is front and center on the minds of just about all of the emailers to the show. They are worried about their investments, their homes and their jobs. ......
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Monday, July 14, 2008
Pawn Shop Trade Golden
From thestreet.com 7/14/08
It was almost a year ago to the day. I remember because it was just days before Major League Baseball's All-Star break. It was raining hard and the market was a bit nervous about subprime, but we had no way of knowing the Pandora's Box that would unfold in the coming months.
I had been calling the bull run in gold and was (and still am) very bullish on the metal. There was a business I had been following for a while that would be an incidental winner if gold prices stayed high and the economy weakened. I had pitched a new Bolling story for Fast Money. It was a "Dirty Trade" segment on pawn shops.
My theory was this: With a nervous economy and jittery job market, pawn shops stood to benefit. Seeing tough roads ahead, I suspected that people would pawn their gold jewelry and use the money for necessities. Pawn brokers would be the right business at the right time.
EzCorp (EZPW - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) remains that best play on my "pawn shop" theme. It is one of the world's largest operators of pawn shops. It derives revenue from two main sources.
First, it collects interest from the loans it makes. In some states (Texas, for example, where the majority of EzPawn shops do business) the interest rate on short-term loans can go as high as 240% ... legally!
In about 25% of those loans, the customer chooses to walk away from the collateralized jewelry, electronics, musical instruments, etc. If that happens, EzPawn shops are allowed to sell those items. ....................
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Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Gold in a Pennant Race
From thestreet.com 7/2/08
Gold is breaking out of its pennant just as everyone begins to gear up for the Olympics in Beijing. As we head into the July Fourth weekend, the Olympic trials -- the competition to decide who will represent the nation in the games and go for the gold -- are heading down the homestretch.
Let me explain the logic and psychology of a reliable technical pattern -- the pennant. After a market, in this case gold, makes a big move in either direction, it starts to get volatile. Big moves up are met with big moves down.
Both bulls and bears are confident and take turns pushing the price up, then down. This goes on for days, but as time passes, the trader instinct begins to kick in ... "Why isn't this following through?"
The moves up and down become less and less exaggerated. The pattern that forms is called a pennant because the widest part of the flag is at the beginning and eventually closes in on a small point at the tip.
Pennants are great predictors of a substantial price move, but there is a catch. We don't know which direction the big move will go. The psychology again: The pent-up bulls and bears are ready to add conviction, but only one will win and we aren't sure which one. So, we wait for the "breakout." ..................................
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